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| Spiked Island 1990 #Never4Got |
Lots of Labourites who expected victory on May 7 now say they saw the election result coming. It’s reassuring to retrospectively cast yourself the clairvoyant, in fact it's always pretty good to say you saw it coming
This is not just a thing consigned to politics. How often do you hear someone claim they knew their football team
would lose, after they have lost? Or they 'always knew' some celebrity was gay after they come out? It’s soothing to think you knew, to ignore all the hunches proven incorrect.
The future’s very hard to predict
and often we get it wrong, especially when, as in politics, the potential variables – that is
anything and everything happening on the face of the earth – are so great.
Add to this that the black swans, the big unexpected events,
have a far greater political effect than any politician would wish to believe
and how can you say any potential Labour leader is unelectable in 2020.
9/11, the banking crisis, the surge in SNP popularity
following the referendum. All were hugely unexpected and politically influential, the last of which shaped
Labours last defeat in way that was impossible to imagine a few years ago.
Not that this matters to those who think Corbyn is the
devil.
Tony Blair’s shit-eating grin has emerged back onto the front
pages of the papers - his opinions ever more irrelevant, his finger no
longer on the nation's pulse. Not for the first time he sees devastation before him. “The Labour party is in danger more
mortal today than at any point in the over 100 years of its existence.”
His vision of Corbyn's Labour apocalyptic. Less a vision of the
future, than fear used to put forward his own ideology.
There are some truths to what nu-Labour has to say. Yes, Labour
will be a more divided party under Corbyn - never a good look - but no matter who
wins Labour will be divided, the broadness of political beliefs in a two-party
systems is not inducive to either party's stability.
But is this enough to stop a movement?
History shows it is the events that few are able predict
that often matter most. With a Euro-referendum in this term and the world a
more volatile place than anybody cares to imagine, it’s near impossible to know how political landscapes might evolve or dissolve.
So vote Cooper for victory in 2020. So vote Kendall for
victory in 2020. So vote Burnham for victory in 2020. Vote for guesswork, vote
for fear.
Who really knows what 2020 holds? Not no one. So why not
vote for what you believe in…
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